NL Central Central

Thanks Jim Hendry. Now Try Again.

2011-07-29T08:52:00.000-07:00

The Indians really needed a good outfielder. And the Cubs apparently really needed to trade a good player with a reasonable contract for prospects. I'm going to try and avoid a passive-aggressive, smart-ass tone by using question headings.

What did the Cubs get?
It is pretty well known what the Indians got. Even though Fukudome hasn't been amazing since coming over from Japan, it isn't difficult to predict what he will bring. It is difficult to determine what Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith will bring.
Abner Abreu: Signed by the Indians in '08 as an undrafted free agent, the term 'raw' is used to describe his skills. He ranks fairly high on most Indians prospect lists but he's still playing A ball and is only 22. He has shown good power for that level. He's played mostly right field and a little third base.
Carlton Smith: Drafted by the Indians in '04, Carlton has made his way to AAA Columbus where he has pitched 46 innings with 46 strikeouts. (ooh) In those 46 innings he has only allowed 4 home runs. (ooh)
Carlton is obviously closer to the majors and given the level of pitching that the Cubs have seen from their AAA team in Iowa, Carlton will be a welcome addition.
It also opens right field up for Colvin to get regular playing time, which I support in spite of his poor perfomance at the plate this season.

Why is this still annoying?
It's still annoying because the Cubs should be trading the bad contracts. I think we got two good players for Fukudome, the Cubs didn't get fleeced or anything. I also think they needed to trade for some prospects to help replace what we lost in the Garza trade. Still, any trade that doesn't involve Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Zambrano just won't be good enough.

Go Indians.
Since the Cubs are pretty much out of it, I now choose other teams to root to the playoffs. I like to root for the Royals but at 11 games out they're very unlikely to make the playoffs. The Tigers are killers at the plate but can't pitch their way out of a . . . they don't have good pitching. The Indians have put together a good team with not much money and I like that. Hopefully Fukudome will help them to the playoffs.

Weeks Replacement

2011-07-28T08:16:00.000-07:00

The Brewers will be lucky if Weeks is able to return after only 15 days on the DL. If you haven't seen the video, head over to the Brewers website and check it out. While you're there you can read Adam McCalvy speculate that AAA second baseman Eric Farris is a 'leading candidate' to replace Weeks temporarily. The Brewers have a few different options.
1. Craig Counsell
This option wouldn't even be questioned if Counsell was having a better year at the plate: .154 BA and 4 RBI in 72 games. Even if Counsell had a .250 average I think the Brewers would be more prone to plug him in at 2nd without much thought, but he is simply not hitting. The team would lose too much offense if they used Counsell for the duration of Weeks DL stint.
2. Eric Farris
I don't see this happening either. The Brewers are too close to first place and it's too late in the season for them to trust half the middle infield to a 25 year old who is only doing so-so in Nashville.
3. Josh Wilson
In 31 games for Milwaukee this season Wilson has played every infield position and some outfield. His defense is above average. He strikes out at a steady clip but is still an offensive upgrade from Counsell. Wilson seems like the most logical in-house choice for the Brewers.
4. Trading for Jamey Carroll
People are already speculating that this is a possibility since Carroll has been in trade talks all year and the Dodgers have expressed that they are 'open for business'. Carroll is having a solid year at the plate and would be great for Milwaukee. The determining factor here is how long Weeks will be out. If management thinks he will be back in 15 days then they'll be more likely to find someone already on the roster. Otherwise, they may seriously consider moving some prospects for Carroll. In spite of Carroll's decent numbers this season I doubt the Brewers would need to give up much to land him.

I am not a big fan of trading for rental players but the Brewers just lost a ton of offense. The team needs to find maximum offensive production from their replacement and that would be Jamey Carroll.
Recently, the Brewers were also 'talking about' Clint Barmes and Jerry Hairston Jr. These two would provide slight upgrades over Wilson. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers target them since they'll likely be quite cheap.

Player Profiles with Valerie Alerie: Prince Fielder

2011-07-22T11:06:00.001-07:00

Cubs Sign (enter aging veteran name here)

2011-07-15T14:25:00.000-07:00

As you can see from the image, Dave Bush is a pretty jovial guy. Good to have in the clubhouse I'm sure. But is this all that Jim Hendry can manage? I know there's still time and he is not a major commitment of funds but Dave Bush is not a solution to any of the problems the Cubs have.
The Texas Rangers signed him at the beginning of the season for the purposes of being a middle reliever and spot starter and then they released him. He's not the worst pitcher in the majors but he's certainly not been good.
The Cubs are out of it, plain and simple. Instead of paying for some mediocre starts how about bring up some of the minor league pitchers to help out. I know, none of them have been good this year but go down to Tennessee and call up Chris Rusin or Robert Whitenack. Are they going to do worse than Bush? Probably not and it'd be a good opportunity for the team to focus on seasoning their minor leaguers instead of filling ML holes with ineffective vets.

No Starters In Iowa, No Hope in Chicago

2011-07-11T08:11:00.000-07:00

The Cubs starters this year have proven to be a pretty fragile bunch. Only three players (Garza, Dempster and Zambrano) have more than 10 starts. (All three of those starters have ERAs over 4.00.) Since the Cubs are only prone to trade away their good players (read: Gorzelanny) our thoughts immediately drift to the minor league system to replace these injured pitchers. Unfortunately, there are no starters at Iowa.
That may seem like a rude comment to make but production from starters in the Cubs AAA team has been bleak, bad, rough. There really isn't an adequate word to describe it, that's why it's best to simply say: "There are no starters there."
Four pitchers on the Iowa Cubs have started more than 10 games and combine for a 5.95 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. The best pitcher of those four is 38 year old Ramon Ortiz who just got tagged by the Pirates for six runs in four innings. Other pitchers at Iowa who have started games have been less effective. (In case you're wondering, the starters at Tennessee have been mediocre and aren't close to the majors.)
This isn't to suggest that if only they had pitching, they'd be a force in the division. Their offense ranks at the bottom as well. I would certainly feel better for the team if they had some viable starting options in the system and I simply do not see a single one.
For now the team will need to continue to rely on Ramon Ortiz and . . . . .

My Dad Comments On the Astros Recent Struggles

2011-04-27T17:36:00.000-07:00

The Astros? Is that even a thing? An Astro?
Did your kindergarten students name that team? Sounds like something a 5 year old would come up with.
I don't even know how you root for a team called that.
I can watch something between the Wolves and the Eagles or something but not the Astros. Especially not baseball, that takes forever.
. . . . . . . . . . .
Well how should I know how they're doing, you're the one into baseball with your blog and everything.
How's that going by the way?

Cubs Pitching, April 20th

2011-04-22T20:27:00.000-07:00

Rotation

Ryan Dempster
Heading into the season I considered Dempster the ace. Zambrano was too volatile, Garza is unproven in a smaller ballpark like Wrigley. So the first concern I list here is that Dempster has given up five home runs in four starts. Here's a list of the players who tagged him: Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen, Bill Hall, Angel Sanchez, Seth Smith. Not really monsters at the plate. With the offense challenged to score so far (5th in Runs and Home Runs in the division), allowing four runs per start through 5 innings is a recipe for a terrible record, for Dempster and the Cubs.

Carlos Zambrano
Through four starts Carlos has been pretty consistent. He had one rough game (five runs in five innings) against Houston but other than that he has really given the Cubs a good chance to win. If he can maintain his composure on the mound (and in the dugout) he can regain his status as club ace.

Matt Garza
Garza has 25 strikeouts through 18 innings but batters are hitting .338 against him. He hasn't given up any home runs yet but that doesn't necessarily calm the critics when you're getting hit like crazy.

Casey Coleman
Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells were intended to be starters 4 & 5 but they're injured so Coleman has started two games. He lost his first against Milwaukee, allowing four runs in five innings. He won his second game in Colorado allowing one run in five innings. The Cubs will take an outing like that any day but over time his inability to go deeper into games will hurt the pen.

James Russell
Russell is getting starting opportunities due to the injuries mentioned above. He couldn't get out of the second inning when he started against the Astros but he's scheduled to start the second game of a double-header coming up. Some say Samardzija should start instead but it's really a 'lesser of two evils' decision here.

The rotation will improve when Wells and Cashner return but unless Garza and Dempster get it together it won't be enough to stay at the top of the division. Also, James Russell is a reliever, not a starter. The team needs him in the pen where he can be more effective.

Bullpen

As predicted, the Marmol/Wood/Marshall trio is working out pretty well to start the season. Unfortunately, the team will need more than these three to win games, especially when the starters don't go deep. John Grabow has had some good innings and some bad ones and I'm concerned he's not the lefty that the Cubs need in the pen. I think going with just Russell and Marshall will be fine. Outside of the killer three, the team will need to hope that the young bullpen from last season has improved and can muster some good innings.

Pirates Infield Haiku

2011-04-20T07:53:00.000-07:00

Catcher, Ryan Doumit
Snyder is injured
Snyder's back from DL soon
Doumit still trade bait

First Base, Lyle Overbay
started every game
twenty two home runs your best
start doing your best

Second Base, Neil Walker
Neil who? oh, that guy
three home runs, twelve RBI
replaced Pedro at cleanup

Shotstop, Ronny Cedeno
some say he's slumping
some say he's just not that good
i say they're both right

Third Base, Pedro Alvarez
Mr. Alvarez?
it is important to hit
tell Cedeno too

Houston Astros Acrostic Poem

2011-04-20T07:24:00.000-07:00

I could title this post The Houston Astros and in the body just write 'Underwhelming.'. But that wouldn't be fun or informative. So here's a fun and informative acrostic poem to offer a little insight into Houston's season so far.

H: Happ. More walks than strikeouts, a WHIP nearing 1.5, dangerous.
O: On the road to start the season they went 1-5.
U: Under .500, well under: 6 wins, 11 losses.
S: Slugging percentage: Hunter Pence leads the team with .426.
T: Team ERA: 4.84, last in the division.
O: One home run: the maximum any single Astros player has hit.
N: No everyday player is slugging over .500.

A: Angel Sanchez: new everyday shortstop, hitting .308 with 25 total bases.
S: Saves: Brandon Lyon is 3 for 4 after blowing his first chance of the season.
T: Total bases: 5 of the starting 8 position players have 20 or more.
R: Runs: 69 total, good for 3rd in the division.
O: Only 3 games separate the first and last place teams in the Central.
S: Starting the season 0-5 certainly hasn't helped their cause.

I don't care how many bases Michael Bourn steals (so far he's 8 for 8), the team will stay at or near the bottom of the division if they can't hit home runs. Pence and Lee are good for at least 20 a season and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see Hall and Johnson hit 20 as well. Their starting 5 have had some good games but have been largely inconsistent. As usual, the division is currently up for grabs and Houston is not appearing to be the 'team to beat'.

The Cardinals: 16 Games In

2011-04-19T19:00:00.000-07:00

The first 8 games of the season, St. Louis scored an average of just over 2.6 runs a game and they only won 2 of those games. Through the last 8 games the team has scored a whopping 67 runs, an average of just over 8 per game, leaving them at .500 so far (8-8).
The two players who stand out offensively are Lance Berkman and Colby Rasmus. Not just because they're producing at such a high level so far but because it wasn't necessarily expected. I know you Cardinal fans were just sure Berkman would bounce back and Rasmus would continue to improve on his rightous 2010 season but I didn't. I saw Berkman as an injury waiting to happen and Rasmus as a high K guy who can give you 30 homers in his best seasons (not that that is a bad thing).
Berkman leads the team in homers and RBI and Rasmus has a team leading 39 total bases. Matt Holliday came off the DL like a crazy hit monster, averaging an RBI per game in the 9 games he's played so far.
And I don't want it to seem like hitting's all they have going for them. Some of the starters have surprised as well. Jamie Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan have pitched very well. Westbrook is predictably underwhelming. Carpenter had one bad game against Arizona but otherwise has simply not gotten the run support that other starters have over the last eight games.
The Cardinals biggest liability is closer Ryan Franklin. He's allowed a run in all but one appearance so far this season and has one save in five chances. I know it's only sixteen games in but how many games do you lose in the ninth before the team replaces you?
Who gets Franklin's spot if he continues to blow games? There are a few good relievers on the team but none with much closer experience. Miguel Batista once saved 31 games but that was in 2005 and he's 40 now. Eduardo Sanchez has saved 36 games in the minors since 2007 but he's only 21 years old. I think they'll stick with Franklin longer than they should simply because they don't have many other options. Over the past two seasons he's been a good closer so there's reason to assume this is just a hiccup.
Cardinals fans should hope so because the way Cincinnati is playing, St. Louis is going to need all the wins they can get to keep up.

The Astros in Spring

2011-03-14T20:21:00.000-07:00

The Houston Astros have a poor collection of position players. The Pirates horrendous pitching staff is one of the only things keeping Houston from a possible last place finish this season. The Astros deserve a look to see who exactly they will be allowing to start in the field.

Catcher: The injury to Jason Castro was considered by many to be just another nail in the coffin for the 2011 season and it likely was. Humberto Quintero and JR Towles are giving a bit of hope to the position with their offensive numbers so far. In a combined 37 at bats they put together a slash line of .351/.385/.644. Also, Towles has one walk and no strikeouts in 20 at bats.

First Base: There was a notion that Carlos Lee could play first base if there was no one producing there and/or if he wasn't healthy enough for the outfield. He hasn't played a game there all Spring. Brett Wallace has 35 at bats while playing 11 games at first, good for a .286/.324/.489. That isn't spectacular but if he plays like this in the regular season it'll be enough to remain the starter if Lee isn't.

Second Base: Bill Hall or Jeff Keppinger. Kepp is injured until April and Hall was likely to get the majority of at bats given his salary and power. The 'Stros have given Anderson Hernandez 8 games at second but not due to competition.

Shortstop: I think Tommy Manzella is the best option at short but they've stated that Clint Barmes will start instead, likely due to his power potential. Barmes currently leads the team in at bats through Spring with 38 and has a .211/.286/.316 to show for it. Manzella and Angel Sanchez have gotten at bats as well and Manzella has produced the best of the three.

Third Base: Chris Johnson blew up last year and is racking so far this Spring: .344/.417/.563 and 2 homers.

Left Field: Carlos Lee will play left unless the team is worried about his health. In 28 at bats Jason Michaels has been one of the most productive position players on the team this Spring (playing as a DH). It's possible he'll start the season there and be a serviceable option.

Center Field: Michael Bourn has this position locked down. Regardless of his Spring numbers (which aren't great) he has the job.

Right Field: Hunter Pence is awesome. His Spring numbers are also awesome. He will be the most productive offensive player on the team in 2011.

It'll be a big boost if they can get any production out of catcher. Johnson, Lee & Pence just aren't enough offense on their own to keep the team competitive. Even though some of these Spring numbers are lending hope it'll be a far shot to see it continue from those players throughout the regular season.

NL Central: Position By Position

2011-03-05T16:38:00.000-08:00

In 2011 the NL Central will be more competitive than it has been in a number of years. The other day I was team-by-teaming it with Jerry Baseball and we ran into some differences of opinion. The only answer was a position-by-position breakdown and ranking.

Catcher
1. Yadier Molina: Molina is number one here largely because he started 130 games, the most of any catcher in the NL Central. Molina is arguably one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Offensively he can contribute an OBP around .330, very low strikeout totals and over 100 hits.
2. Ramon Hernandez / Ryan Hanigan: Either one of these two could find a starting job with a number of different teams. Dusty Baker prefers to play them both and in 2010 it resulted in the second most RBI from the catcher position in the entire NL. There is no reason that won't happen again in 2011. The Reds also have a number of touted catching prospects close to the majors and that will possibly help motivate Hernandez & Hanigan.
3. Geovany Soto: Soto will not likely repeat his rookie season but getting a .393 OBP from a catcher over 105 games is great. Add to that 17 home runs and you have a very valuable catcher.
4. Chris Snyder / Ryan Doumit: Snyder is the highest paid player on the Pirates and they'll give him the chance to start the season. Last year Snyder did not produce at the plate. The Pirates are hoping for at least 20 home runs and a .260 average in about 110-120 games. If Snyder slumps then Doumit (if not traded) will take his place and the Pirates will hope for the same from him.
5. Jonathan Lucroy: If the Brewers choose not to start Lucroy as their catcher in 2010 then they drop to six on this list. He's no wonder boy but he can hit .250 and keep his OBP at about .310 which is enough to expect from a 24 year old catcher with limited pro experience (411 total games). It's also important to note that he started 74 games for Milwaukee in 2010 and threw out 17 of 54 runners. He may not start opening day due to a slight injury he's recovering from but he is still their best option.
6. Humberto Quintero (J.R. Towles): Quintero is a solid defender who struggles to hit .230-.240 and has not posted an OBP over .300 at the ML level since 2006. Jason Castro injured himself and will not play soon. Houston could try and trade for a catcher (possibly Doumit) but their farm system is shallow enough as it is. Towles is recently a top prospect and I see Houston banking on that potential.

First Base
1. Albert Pujols: Is Albert Pujols. Excellent defense and a lock for 40+ homers, 100+ RBI, 100+ walks, 1000 OPS.
2. Joey Votto: Led the NL in OBP, SLG & OPS in 2010. He got a spot above Prince because he hit more hits, home runs, doubles and RBI in 11 fewer games.
3. Prince Fielder: Fielder led this group with 161 games started in 2010 and he led all of baseball with 114 walks. His batters eye and his power will result in a great deal of offensive production.
4. Carlos Pena: In 2010, 46% of his 582 plate appearances resulted in either a home run, strikeout or walk. That percentage was 47% in 2008 and 50% in 2009. This trend and his solid defense will likely continue through 2011
5. Lyle Overbay: The requirements for playing on the Pittsburgh Pirates are very low. Overbay will keep his job regardless of how he plays. He'll likely play in 150 games and can hit 20 homers and 30 doubles.
6. Brett Wallace: Wallace has had considerable success in his three year minor league career and in 2010 he was not able to bring that success to Houston in 51 games. The Astros will start him out at first and if he falters they will move Carlos Lee to first. I expect the team to let him work through his struggles though and he should keep the job throughout the season.

Second Base
1. Rickie Weeks: My affinity for Rickie Weeks is well documented. After a few disappointing years he finally came on in 2010 and if he can stay healthy will play just as well or better.
2. Brandon Phillips: Phillips can hit for power and has good speed. He was 16 for 28 last year in stolen bases so I hope in 2011 he limits his running to extra base hits.
3. Neil Walker: Walker got a hit in almost 30% of his at bats last year including 12 home runs and 29 doubles. He will have a full year of playing time in 2011 and he will likely become one of the best hitters the Pirates have.
4. Bill Hall: He can hit 20 home runs but he strikes out a lot and his defense isn't too great.
5. Skip Schumaker: Typically a .300 hitter, Schumaker underperformed in 2010. He did finish the season well and you could argue that Schumaker and Hall need to be switched on this list but his lack of power and coming off a down season lead me to place him at 4.
6. Blake DeWitt: DeWitt will likely share time with Jeff Baker at second base since Baker hits lefties so well. At his best DeWitt is a .270 hitter and an average defender with little to no power.

Shortstop
1. Starlin Castro: This guy is an errors machine. He had 27 errors in 125 games, second in the majors only to Ian Desmond. His offense was a bright spot though: his 31 doubles and 5 triples led to him leading this group in AVG, OBP, SLG & OPS.
2. Paul Janish: Not much power or speed but he can hit OK. He only played in 82 major league games last season and managed a .260 average and 22 walks to 30 strikeouts.
3. Clint Barmes: Barmes being number three on this list makes it clear how shallow the talent pool is here. He's a strong enough defender but is a sub-.250 hitter who has the power potential for 20 home runs if allowed to play a full season.
4. Ryan Theriot: At his best Theriot can manage a .270 average, 5 homers and 20 stolen bases through a full season.
5. Yuniesky Betancourt: Last year Betancourt hit 16 home runs in 151 games. He won't get on base much and the best Milwaukee can hope for is another 16 home runs and average defense.
6. Ronny Cedeno: The Pirates may bring up Brian Bixler sometime this season and it would serve them well to do so. Cedeno is very similar to Betancourt but with half the power.

Third Base
1. Scott Rolen: It may seem crazy to see Rolen at the top of this list but I'm ranking on the assumption that the players will stay healthy. Rolen had similar numbers to McGehee in 2010 but did so in 24 fewer games. If he can play 150 games the Reds will get 20+ homers and 30+ doubles with more than reasonable walk rates.
2. Casey McGehee: It's not unreasonable to think McGehee can hit 30 homers and 100 RBI. In 2011 his strikeout rates increased quite a bit and he's going to need to curb those to contribute at a high level.
3. Chris Johnson: In only 94 games last season Johnson hit 22 doubles, 2 triples and 11 homers. He is unproven through a full major league season but the signs are there that he can be an extra base machine at the hot corner.
4. Aramis Ramirez: Ramirez had his worst season since coming over to Chicago. Even through his worst season he managed a .276 average and 10 home runs with men in scoring position which led to his 83 RBI. If Aramis can find his old form he will be at the top of this list but he may continue to under perform.
5. David Freese: Only played in 70 games in 2010 before getting injured and missing the rest of the season. He is scheduled to be ready for opening day but the Cardinals have said they'll rest him to ensure he's healthy. When healthy he is potentially a .300/.350/.400 hitter but he'll have to prove he's healthy.
6. Pedro Alvarez: At only 24 years old Alvarez has a lot of potential but has yet to impress at the ML level. As is typical for young players, Alvarez struck out a lot in his first exposure to ML pitching. In 2011 the Pirates can hope for .260/.320 if Alvarez continues to improve.

Left Field
1. Ryan Braun: Braun and Holliday offer very similar levels of offensive production. Braun hits better with runners in scoring position and is better on the bases. 2010 seemed like a down year since he didn't eclipse 30 homers but he had a career high in doubles (45) and still managed 103 RBI. I expect Braun to improve from his 2010 production.
2. Matt Holliday: Had a career low in strikeouts in 2010 and led this group with a 922 OPS. Holliday won't repeat his '07 season but will come close to 30 homers and 100 RBI.
3. Carlos Lee: 2010 was one of the worst seasons of Carlos Lee's career but he still managed 24 home runs and 89 RBI. Houston is hoping he gets on base a bit more in 2011 and pushes those homer and RBI numbers up a bit.
4. Alfonso Soriano: Soriano strikes out about 25% of the time. His production has leveled off to a decent 25 homers, 75 RBI, 40 doubles. Last season he was routinely removed from games in the later innings due to his poor defense.
5. Jonny Gomes: Gomes also strikes out quite a bit and is good for 80+ RBI even though his power numbers aren't too impressive.
6. Jose Tabata: Tabata was 21 last season and hit .299/.346/.400 in 102 games. He's definitely a solid young player but at his age it's likely he will not match those numbers through a full season.

Center Field
1. Colby Rasmus: 23 home runs and only 66 RBI is largely the result of hitting behind Albert Pujols. St. Louis batted Rasmus 5th in 72 games last year. At 23 years old he can only improve from here.
2. Andrew McCutchen: It would be pretty easy to argue McCutchen, Byrd and Stubbs but I think McC is the most productive of the three due to his ability to get on base. He mostly bats in the leadoff spot (to a lesser degree in the 2 & 3 spot) and gives Pittsburgh one of the best lead-off men in the division.
3. Marlon Byrd: Led the Cubs with a .293 batting average and 170 hits in 2010. Byrd provides solid defense in center and a propensity for extra base hits.
4. Drew Stubbs: Another young player (26) assured of getting better each year. In 2010 he hit 22 homers, 19 doubles and stole 30 bases, getting caught only six times. His biggest detriment was the 168 strikeouts in 150 games.
5. Michael Bourn: Bourn gives the Astros good range in center field, 50+ stolen bases a year and at least 20 doubles.
6. Chris Dickerson: It's possible the Brewers start Carlos Gomez but I doubt it. Dickerson has success at the major league level ('08-'09 with Reds). Since then he hasn't been allowed to play often enough to get going. Allowed a full season of playing time he could give the Brewers some speed in the lineup and a .270/.320/.370 slash line.

Right Field
1. Corey Hart: Corey Hart hits the ball really hard: 34 doubles, 4 triples and 31 home runs in 2010. He strikes out a lot but he's easily the best of this group.
2. Jay Bruce: Bruce has the potential to be number 1 on this list but I don't see it happening in 2011. He misses games pretty regularly due to various injuries. He'll give the Reds another 25 home runs and 80 RBI.
3. Hunter Pence: In 2010 Pence hit 25 home runs for the third consecutive season but a career high 91 RBI and could continue to improve. Expect an OPS of around 800 and another 25 homers.
4. Fukudome/Colvin: Colvin can hit home runs quite frequently and Fukudome has solid defense and a .350-.370 OBP. These two will combine and provide the Cubs with an above-average option in right.
5. Garrett Jones: He can play nearly every game of the season and strike out in almost all of them. He will also hit 20 home runs and 80+ RBI.
6. Lance Berkman: You may be surprised to see Berkman at the bottom of this list but I don't believe that simply being in a lineup with Pujols and Holliday is enough to get Berkman back on track. He'll also be playing in the field more often and will likely need more time off. I don't see Berkman improving on his 2010 season.

If you give each ranking a point value the breakdown looks like this: Reds, Brewers, Cards, Cubs, Stros, Pirates. That also happened to be the ranking for runs scored in 2010.
Not surprisingly, most 2011 rankings for the NL Central look just like that also.

Rickie Weeks Gets Paid

2011-02-19T11:11:00.000-08:00

The Brewers recently extended Weeks four (possibly five) years. He could make $50M if he remains an everyday player throughout the contract. As the highest paid second baseman in the division it's fitting that we compare him to his counterparts within the NLC using 2010 stats.
(Note: The injury stats are for regular season games through the players career and include days lost to illness, injury, etc. Compiled from http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/. I am also assuming DeWitt will be the starter in 2011 but it could very well be Darwin Barney or Jeff Baker.)

Contract                            Games / At Bats       Batting Average         OBP
Weeks, 4yr/$50M             Weeks 160/651             Walker .296                Walker .392
.Phillips, 4yr/$27M             Phillips 155/626             Phillips .275                 Weeks .366
Schumaker, 2yr/$4.7M      Schu. 137/476                Weeks .269                 DeWitt .336
Hall, 1yr/$3M                    DeWitt 135/440              Schu. .265                   Phillips .332
.DeWitt, 1yr/$410K           Hall 119/344                    DeWitt .261               Schu. .328
Walker, 1yr/$400K           Walker 110/426               Hall .247                     Hall.316

Home Runs             RBI                   Days Injured (career)              Errors
Weeks 29                 Weeks 83                  Weeks 253                             Schu. 16
Phillips 18                  Walker 66                  Phillips 42                              Weeks 15
Hall 18                       Phillips 59                  Hall 24                                   Hall 12
Walker 12                 DeWitt 52                 Schu. 7                                   Walker 7
Schu. 5                      Hall 46                      Walker 7                                 DeWitt 5
DeWitt 5                  Schu. 42                     DeWitt 2                                 Phillips 3

There isn't going to be much argument about the ranking of second basemen in the division:
1. Weeks
2. Phillips
3. Walker
4. Hall
5. Schumaker
6. DeWitt

Weeks is clearly the best second basemen in the division and arguably one of the top five in all of baseball. Other teams would have paid more than $50M over 4 years for that level of production from a middle infielder. I think the Brewers got a great deal here assuming Weeks is able to play 150+ games a year.

Can the Brewers Replace Fielder and Weeks?

2011-02-12T06:25:00.000-08:00

"Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contract: I'll win a pennant every year." -Sparky Anderson

Milwaukee has options in house and on the free agent market if both of these players seek a bigger contract with another team. I expect both players to have great 2011 seasons and demand big contracts on the market. I know the team has been trying to lock Weeks up to a bigger contract recently but their time is running out. If the Brewers can't afford them (likely) how will they replace them?

Replacing Weeks

In House: 26 year old Luis Cruz has 164 major league at bats and hasn't done much with them. His offensive numbers at Nashville (AAA) were alright: .281/.309/.414, 10 HR, 68 RBI in 488 at bats. He had 20 errors in his time at Nashville though so I don't see Milwaukee trusting him up the middle unless he drastically improves his OBP to give them an option at the top of the lineup.

Free Agents: The Brewers have a few options here to replace Weeks. It may be challenging for them to find an adequate replacement for a reasonable price though. The best options are: Alex Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins & Omar Infante. Those four will command a premium that Milwaukee will be unlikely to pay. Marco Scutaro is a more cost effective option but his production has only recently begun to increase and it's TBD if it will continue. Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria and Rafael Furcal (club option) are also possibilities. If I had to say right now which of these players the team signs it'd be Marco Scutaro. I don't think he'll play well enough for Boston to exercise his $6M option but I think he'll assume a bigger payday than his player option of $3M. The Brewers can pay him $5-$6M and (despite his errors) have a decent replacement.

Replacing Fielder

In House: If I were Milwaukee I would give Joe Koshansky a shot. He has done nothing in his 50 ML at bats but his 2010 AAA numbers are good: .264/.370./.496, 26 HR, 79 RBI in 425 at bats. We can't assume Koshansky (29 years old in 2012) would bring those numbers to Milwaukee but paying him practically nothing and his minor league track record is worth trusting for a shot. It could also free up enough money to shoot for a higher tier shortstop mentioned above. It's also worth noting that Casey McGehee had similar AAA numbers before allowing him a shot at a full year and that worked out really well for Mil.

Free Agent: Pujols. Let's get that name out of the way now. I don't think Milwaukee would be interested in paying his salary. Here's a list of free agent's to be: Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, Jorge Cantu, Michael Cuddyer, Casey Kotchman, Nick Swisher. Adrian Gonzalez will likely be playing for Boston beyond 2012 so I'm not going to list him here. Pena got $10M for one year and Lee got $7.25. Unless their 2011 season is fantastic (unlikely), they'll both make less beyond their current contracts and could be feasible signings for Milwaukee. If I had to make a call now I'd think they'd go for Swisher (assuming NY doesn't exercise their $10.25M option). While not typically a first basemen he's sound enough defensively to trust. His offensive numbers are quite good for what he'd get paid. Right now he makes just under $7M and that would likely increase a bit but wouldn't be much over $10M per year.

Regardless of the choice they make, the Brewers have a number of options on the free agent market for each position. No team wants to lose players of that caliber but the upcoming free agent crop make it all a little easier to bear.

Iowa Cubs 2011 Rotation

2011-02-06T06:31:00.000-08:00

First we should check out the Chicago Cubs pitching staff and contracts to see what chance the AAA pitchers have of finding a full time job.

                     Last Year of Contract
Zambrano     2012 w/2013 vesting option
Dempster      2012
Garza            2011
Silva              2011 w/2012 mutual option
Wells            2010

That option on Silva will not likely be exercised since his contract is so expensive. The team will also hold on to Garza beyond 2011.
Wells had a down year in 2010 but I do not see the Cubs bailing on him early or putting him in the pen if he struggles. Still, he and Silva are the first to go if they have bad months. It doesn't look like Cubs minor leaguers will get a crack at the ML rotation outside of injury fill-ins but Silva will come off the books soon and Wells is pitching for a job so let's see who the possible candidates are for future members of the rotation.

Jay Jackson
Age: 22
2010 AAA stats: 157 IP, 48 BB, 119 K, 1.28 WHIP, 4.28 ERA
2010 ML stats: Did not play at ML level
Probability of playing at ML level: Low. That WHIP is really good for a 22 year old through an entire season of AAA. I do not think Jackson will reach the ML level and that's for the better. The Cubs have a history of bouncing young pitchers between the pen and the rotation to get them some time in with the Chi Cubs and I can't imagine that role switching is good for their development.

J.R. Mathes
Age: 28
2010 AAA stats: 129 IP, 28BB, 64K, 1.44 WHIP, 5.44 ERA
2010 ML stats: Did not play at ML level
Probability of playing at ML level: Low. Mathes being a lefty and the Cubs lacking that in their rotation will be the main reason they call him up, if they do. Mathes has had 21 or more starts per season at AAA Iowa since 2007. 2009 was his best season there and 2010 saw his numbers dip a bit with twice as many walks (28) and 26 more earned runs in the same amount of innings (126). He will have to pitch very well to find his way to Chicago.

Casey Coleman
Age: 22
2010 AAA stats: 117 IP, 35 BB, 59 K, 1.20 WHIP, 4.07 ERA
2010 ML stats: 57 IP, 25 BB, 27 K, 1.42 WHIP, 4.11 ERA
Probability of playing at ML level: High. Coleman started 20 games for Iowa and 8 games for Chicago. His biggest struggle with Chicago was his walks which almost outpaced his Ks 25 to 27. Given his experience (and in spite of his age) I see Coleman getting the first shot as a replacement or spot starter.

Jeff Samardzija
Age: 25
2010 AAA stats: 111 IP, 67 BB, 102 K, 1.37 WHIP, 4.37 ERA
2010 ML stats: 19 IP, 20 BB, 9 K, 2.12 WHIP, 8.38 ERA
Probability of playing at ML level: High. It's clear to see that Jeff's major struggle was his walk rate at the major league level. He also gave up 4 home runs in those 19 innings with Chicago. Throughout his minor league career he hasn't been consistent. The Cubs have too much invested in him to let him go so I expect he'll start 2011 with Chicago as a long reliever, a position the Cubs need improvement from.

Thomas Diamond
Age: 27
2010 AAA stats: 108 IP, 46 BB, 104 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.16 ERA
2010 ML Stats: 29 IP, 18 BB, 36 K, 1.76 WHIP, 6.83 ERA
Probability of playing at ML level: Likely. John Grabow is back from surgery and Kerry Wood is also joining the bullpen so those are two spots taken that were open last year. Diamond didn't have enough control to be effective in Chicago but I think the Cubes will give him another shot. His numbers at AAA are enough to give him a spot start when needed. I see Coleman getting a start ahead of Diamond but I would be surprised if Diamond played exclusively at AAA in 2011.

The young pitchers Chicago trotted out last season were not very effective but we can still say Chicago is heading into the 2011 season with depth in the rotation. This is especially true when we examine the rotations of their lower minor league levels. Fans are tenuously counting on Silva & Wells but it's good to know there are other options.

Is the Pirates Rotation Improved?

2011-02-02T20:08:00.000-08:00

Pittsburgh was last in the division with a 5.00 ERA through the 2010 season. They made some changes, but will they improve the rotation? A more specific question: how many of their starting pitchers will be able to post an ERA below 5.00?

Paul Maholm
Maholm averaged just under six innings per start in 2010 and those six innings were never that good. He totaled 185 innings and a 5.10 ERA. His numbers have degraded over the past three years. 2008 was a great season for Paul but according to fangraphs the velocity of his fastball and cutter have decreased consistently in the seasons since. So we ask: why would he bounce back after two years of sliding? I don't know. I wouldn't count on it. In 2011 I expect Maholm to throw less than 200 innings, allow 220+ hits and another ERA over 5.00.

Ross Ohlendorf
Here's the ace of the staff in 2011. I expect his ERA to be under 5 and over 150 innings. His slider has improved and he has allowed fewer and fewer home runs. I am looking forward to seeing what he can do with a full season.

James McDonald
I'm excited about James in 2011. He came to Pitt in the Octavio Dotel trade last season and had great minor league numbers for LA. He doesn't have a history to indicate he can (or will be allowed to) throw over 150 innings but I think he will develop well and have another sub-5.00 ERA.

Kevin Correia
His season was derailed a bit in 2010 due to a family tragedy so those numbers are a bit deceiving. In 2009 he ground-balled his way to 198 innings, 12 wins and a 3.91 ERA with San Diego. He throws his slider a lot (over 30%) and it works out well for him. If any Pirate eclipses the 200 inning mark it will be Correia. Projection: 190 innings, 3.5 ERA, 11 wins.

Scott Olsen
The Pirates aren't risking much on Olsen and I think they'll give him a shot at starting even if he doesn't impress in Spring Training. He has a challenging injury history, much of the reason Pitt got him for so cheap. He does have marked success at the big league level on his resume. He has begun to throw his fastball much less and the Pirates will hope his secondary pitches will get the job done. Check out this article for more information about Olsen's possible 2011.

#6
Brad Lincoln didn't have much success at AAA or the ML level in 2010. He will likely start the season in the minors and could be called on to start at the back-end of the rotation.
Charlie Morton isn't liked by many Bucs fans (see: Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors), mainly because he hasn't been very good at all. Still, he's an option they will consider when/if any of the first five need replaced.
The AAA starting pitchers are not very good. The Pirates do not have many viable options outside of their projected rotation. I could rattle off a short list of possible fill-ins but they wouldn't be too influential.

I do think, in general, the rotation will improve if everyone stays healthy. Unfortunately for the Pirates there's no depth and when you have question marks in your front 5 you're setting yourself up for a long season. So, will the team ERA drop below 5.00? No. The set 5 won't stay healthy or be consistent as a whole to maintain a good run and unfortunately for the Bucs, Evan Meek can only pitch so many innings.

Wandy Rodriguez: Worth $34 Million Over 3 Years?

2011-01-29T13:25:00.000-08:00

Yes. He is. As many know (especially fantasy players), Wandy Rodriguez had a really tough start to 2010. So bad that many wrote him off and expected 2009 to have been his last productive season. He rebounded near the end of the year and his stats through the entire season were pretty good: 32 games started, 195 innings, 8.23 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 3.64 ERA.
The Astros were convinced with his later performance from last year, recently agreeing to a 3 year $34M contract. I think this is a great move by the 'Stros, probably the best of the offseason for them. Last season he compared well to some other touted starters: Chad Billingsly, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Matt Garza. I know some of those players are much younger and that would dictate their salaries to a degree but Wandy doesn't have an injury history to speak of so I don't expect that to be a factor. He has pitched as many innings as he's been asked to since 2005.
I read about some complaining of this signing but I think any team would pay just over $11M a year for Wandy. Unfortunately for the 'Stros, they're going to need more than his 200 innings of great pitching to improve their expected standings near the bottom of the NL Central.

Jeff Samardzija Out of Options

2011-01-26T19:48:00.000-08:00

Many already know that Jeff chose baseball over football. At the time not many blamed him because of the huge check he got (5 years, $10M). Lately though, people have been wondering if he could transition to an NFL career at this point, assuming his baseball experiment didn't pan out.
The 27 innings he threw in 2008 weren't bad, especially for a 23 year old. His subsequent time at the major league level has been terrible. In 2010 he bounced from the pen to the rotation and his success was nominal: 111 innings, 1.37 WHIP, 4.37 ERA, 102 Ks, 67 BB. Jay Jackson, Casey Coleman and Thomas Diamond all had a better 2010 with AAA Iowa than Jeff.
Because of those other pitchers I think the Shark will need to really impress this Spring to make the rotation. That goes without saying but given the gap the Cubs have at middle relief I don't think they'll be taking any chances with those roles. The only way I see him making the team out of Spring is in long relief and that's IF he makes a great impression.
This will likely turn out to be another multi-million dollar gamble the Cubs lose.

Kansas City Royals 2011 Rotation

2011-01-19T04:46:00.000-08:00

I'm always excited by teams like the Royals. Not because of their winning ways or a potential late-season playoff push but because they often field some of the youngest prospects in the game. It's always interesting to see how the youth performs at the big-league level and sometimes there are impressive performances.
Starting pitcher Gil Meche recently retired, citing injury (shoulder) problems as his reason. He decided it was best to hang it up than to flounder in the pen and on the DL. It will save the Royals a little bit of money but that's not the point. The point is for us to examine who will be the next front five for KC.

1. Bruce Chen
He didn't put up great peripherals in 2010 but he led the team in wins with 12 and threw 140 innings. In 2005 he won 13 games for Baltimore and almost reached 200 innings. If he can hit 200 innings in 2011 it will be a great relief to the bullpen. It would be surprising to see his ERA dip below 4.00 but for $2 million the team is getting what they pay for.

2. Luke Hochevar
Hoch missed two months so his numbers won't really tell us much but the fact that KC re-signed him for 2011 at just under $2 million makes it clear they believe he can be another 4.00 ERA pitcher. I'm not sure I buy into the 4.00 ERA, he's never proven himself effective in the major leagues and I have to believe that KC is only wringing everything they can out of this former number 1 pick. Maybe he's a late bloomer. Probably not.

3. Kyle Davies
Another player re-signed for a one year deal. Davies is not a very good pitcher, batters had a .283 average against him in 2010 and there's no reason to believe that will change in 2011.

4. Jeff Francis
Once the ace of the Rockies staff Francis has had success but hasn't been able to avoid recent injuries. He came on late last season to little effect. Many believe that since he still has good control he will be effective and on this pitching staff he certianly won't be the biggest loser.

5. Vin Mazzaro
The only 'promising youngster' of the group at 24 Vin has proven he can strike hitters out. Unfortunately he has made it apparent he can walk at a pretty high rate as well. His ML career ERA is just shy of 5.00. If he can lower his walk totals considerably he will be able to win a few games in spite of the anemic KC offense. In 2010 he threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time and I think it will be difficult for a young pitcher to suddenly begin to control all those effectively.

So, this five is most likely to start the season as the rotation and it doesn't offer much hope at all for more than 70 wins. I think the more interesting development will be the players who will possibly be called on as the season progresses to plug the leaks in this mess.

1. Phil Humber
Humber had a 4.12 ERA in 8 games with KC last year and his AAA numbers were alright. He has pitched a total of 51 innings at the major league level with moderate success considering his age (27). If there was any time for Humber to crack a rotation it is now. I wouldn't be surprised to see him part of the rotation to start the season if he has an impressive Spring. The fact that the velocity inched up at least an MPH on all his pitches in 2010 could allude to improvements across the board.
3. Bryan Bullington
I would be surprised to not see Bullington pitch in KC in 2011. In 2010 he pitched 42 innings but was not effective. Still his 1.12 WHIP in 102 innings at AAA is a stat that KC can't ignore in Spring Training.
4. Mike Montgomery
A first round pick, Montgomery hasn't pitched past AA and I honestly do not believe he will be playing a the major league level in 2011 but as the teams top prospect he's worth keeping tabs on.
5. Aaron Crow
Another first round pick who hasn't pitched past AA. He did pitch 119 innings with 90 strikeouts so there is something to get excited about but, like Montgomery, he will probably not play at the ML level in 2011.

In all, this is a pretty sad starting rotation. The most exciting pitching for the Royals organization in 2011 will be found in the minor leagues.

Matt Garza vs. Tom Gorzelanny

2011-01-15T07:11:00.000-08:00

A lot has been said about the Chicago Cubs recent trade to acquire Matt Garza. Most believe the Rays got the better end of the trade, receiving three of Chicago's top 12 prospects. I'm also a believer that the Cubs gave up too much. The best way to evaluate this move is to determine how much better Garza is than the man he's replacing. In this case, Tom Gorzelanny.
In 2009 the Cubs traded for Gorz and he started 7 games for them to moderate effect. I'm just going to jump to the numbers here and present 2010 stats for each pitcher.

Tom: 23GS, 136IP, 1.496WHIP, 4.09ERA, 7-9W/L
Matt: 32GS, 204IP, 1.251WHIP, 3.91ERA, 15-10W/L

It's clear to see that Garza is the better pitcher but is he worth the upgrade over Gorz to trade away the prospects the Cubs did? No. He isn't. Here's a few reasons why.

1. Cost-Gorzelanny makes less than a million and he has a one-year contract. No commitment, low cost. If the Cubs wanted they could sign him to a multi-year deal for not much more than a million per. Garza is making 3.35M and is under team control for three more seasons. That team control is a great plus but Garza will undoubtedly earn more and more through arbitration so the Cubs will likely pay over 2/3M more for per year Garza than Gorz.

2. Home Runs-Wrigley Field is a much smaller place to pitch than Tropicana Field and when the wind is blowing out the flys really carry. Garza has a really good 4-seam fastball that he uses 60% of the time and batters have a tendency to tee off on. He has held a home run rate of one per nine innings the past two seasons. In a recent article on fangraphs Albert Lyu mapped Garza's batted balls from a map of Tropicana to one of Wrigley. It clearly showed that his home run rate would increase without even factoring in the wind. Tom's HR rate isn't too much lower (.7 in 2010) but he features his slider almost as much as his fastball so I think the tendency is naturally lower. In 2010 I expect Garza will develop a HR rate closer to 2 which will boost his ERA and effect his Loss totals. I also want to mention that Garza is working with a much less predictable and effective defense behind him.

3. The Prospects-SS Hak-Ju Lee, RF Brandon Guyer, RHP Chris Archer, C Robinson Chirinos, LF Sam Fuld. I understand trading Lee, Starlin Castro is obviously the shortstop of the future for Chicago and even though Lee is performing exceptionally in the minors it makes sense to get something for him instead of letting him languish in the system. Fuld is a fourth or fifth outfielder, a decent bench player in the outfield. Guyer, Archer & Chirinos have been tearing up the minors recently. Fukudome comes off the books next year and Soriano in 2014 so there will be room for Guyer. Archer is still very low in the minors but has good numbers. The Cubs have typically been in a situation where they can bring up a starter at any time so whenever he would be ready. . . Geovany Soto had a great season in 2010 with an OBP near .400 and 17 homers. I couldn't see the Cubs moving him any time soon but a sweet hitting catcher at the AAA level could fetch high quality in a trade. If the Cubs kept him longer in the system to convince other teams his overall value would be much higher. Simply put, this is a great lot of players that the Cubs moved.

So, after all this, who do you think came out on top in this trade? What the Cubs can hope for is to sign Garza to an extension pretty soon, maybe after he proves his mettle at Wrigley sometime during the 2010 season. There's no doubt he's a good pitcher and the value for the Cubs will come through years of service.

The Best Closers of 2011

2011-01-09T10:16:00.000-08:00

Brian Wilson
Aside from his obvious ability I put Wilson at the top because of the Giants propensity to play close games. They'll have few blowouts in 2011, giving Wilson many save chances. Last season he blew 5 saves and many say this is due to his reliance on his fastball and hesitance to throw secondary pitches. His slider is not very effective but his cutter is a suitable second pitch. He threw his cutter more in '10 compared to '09 and it worked well for him. He'll use those two pitches to convert 40+ saves in 2011.

Heath Bell
Bell has two good pitches and they haven't lost any velocity in the past three years. There's every reason to believe he'll have the same effectiveness in 2011. He doesn't throw his slider anymore but doesn't need to. The Padres are another team that regularly plays in close games and it doesn't seem like they'll trade him this offseason. Bell is another lock for 40+ saves.

Neftali Feliz
From ’09-’10 the velocity on his fastball increased and he ended up throwing his slider less. It worked out very well for him: 69 innings, 71 Ks, .879 WHIP. He’s only 22 years old and I think that will play in his favor since he has proven exposure in high pressure situations, converting 40 of 43 save opportunities in 2010. Expect another 40+ save season for Feliz in 2011.

Carlos Marmol
In 2011, Marmol set an MLB record for most strikeouts per nine innings for a relief pitcher with 15.99. He threw 138 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. Unbelievable. He allowed more walks (including HBP & IBB) than hits: 60 to 40. That’s why he’s number four on this list. He could paint himself into a corner a few too many times this season, resulting in more than the 5 blown saves of 2010. Regardless, he’ll get 40+ saves for the Cubs

Joakim Soria
Soria managed 43 saves for one of the worst teams in baseball. The Royals won less than 70 games and they’ll likely win a similar number in 2011. In 2010 Soria threw his fastball more than any other ML season before and it lost no movement or velocity. He also has a change and slider he throws periodically to keep a good mix. Soria will post 40+ in spite of KC’s low win totals.

Honorable Mention: Matt Capps is not on this list since he will likely move to a set-up role when Joe Nathan returns from injury. Also, Rafael Soriano didn't make the list since it seems like he'll sign with the Yankees to play set-up behind Mariano Rivera.

MLB Burners: The Best Base Stealers in the MLB Today

2011-01-06T16:25:00.002-08:00

Juan Pierre, White Sox, 73%
Stolen Bases: 68
Caught: 18
Many thought he was beyond his fastest days but by posting this career high number at age 33 he certainly quieted the skeptics. Being caught 18 times seems like an awful lot but 73% is a pretty good gamble to take in many situations. Playing for a team that struggled offensively helps his case as a necessary speed component.

Michael Bourn, Astros, 76%
Stolen Bases: 52
Caught: 12
I think Bourn could become the stolen base leader if he gets on base more and plays a complete season. His production over the past three seasons lead many to believe that his offensive production has maxed out. He's certainly proven that he can steal bases efficiently.

Rajai Davis, Athletics, 78%
Stolen bases: 50
Caught: 12
Davis now plays for the Blue Jays and they have alluded to the fact that he'll be their lead-off hitter. If he gets a full season hitting at the top of the line-up it's almost guaranteed he'll top 50
SBs again.

Carl Crawford, Rays, 78%
Stolen bases: 47
Caught: 11
If he had less power and ended up at first base more often he would certainly have more stolen bases. At 29 I don't really expect a big dip in his power so Crawford will likely end up with less than 50 stolen bases in 2011. Still an impressive number.

Brett Gardner, Yankees, 80%
Stolen bases: 47
Caught: 9
Gardner really impressed baseball fans in 2010 when he led the league in pitches per at bat through the course of the season. His high OBP and speed make him one of the most prototypical lead-off hitters in the game today. If he avoids the wrist issues in 2011 it's highly probable he leads the league in SBs next year.

Up the Middle in the NL Central

2011-01-06T16:23:00.000-08:00

Cincinnati Reds
SS: Edgar Renteria .276/.332/. 374, 4 errors (68 games)
2B: Brandon Phillips .275/.332/.430, 3 errors
Brandon Phillips is the best hitting middle infielder in the NL Central. He also limits himself to single digit errors each season. Renteria has begun to wane in terms of his offensive production. In the last four full seasons he has averaged about 13 errors. Manager Dusty Baker made a recent statement that alluded to Paul Janish and Renteria sharing time at short or it at least it being a competition. I’m not sure, at this point in his career, if Renteria is much of an upgrade over Janish but he’s certainly proven himself and barring some lengthy slumps will likely see most of the playing time. If this is a trio or a duo it will still be one of the stronger middles in the division.

Milwaukee Brewers
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt .259/.288/.405, 18 errors
2B: Rickie Weeks .269/.366/.464, 15 errors
Betancourt is an all-around average short-stop. Weeks hit 29 home runs last season and finally cemented himself as a top-flight second baseman. There’s no superb defense here but they’ll be one of the best in the NL Central.

Chicago Cubs
2B: Blake DeWitt .261/.336/.373, 12 errors
SS: Starlin Castro .300/.347/.408, 27 errors
I need to immediately mention that Castro had 27 errors last season. One of the main reasons the Cubs signed first baseman Carlos Pena ($10MM/1yr) was the expectation that his above-average defense will prevent a number of those errors. DeWitt had 12 errors at 2nd and despite their 40+ error potential their offense puts them at number three in the division.

Houston Astros
SS: Tommy Manzella .225/.267/.264, 9 errors (82 games)
2B: Bill Hall .214/.316/.456, 6 errors (56 games at second)
The Astros currently have Manzella & Clint Barmes at short and Hall and Jeff Keppinger at second. They’ll likely go with Manzella & Hall which is an above average pair. Manzella has limited (unproven) experience at the major league level but his AAA numbers are impressive. Hall hits for pretty good power. I think these two will be good for the ‘Stros this season, who needed some extra offense.

St. Louis Cardinals
SS: Ryan Theriot .270/.321/.312, 7 errors
2B: Skip Schumaker .265/.328/.338, 16 errors
Within the division the Cards had a pretty good offense. They ranked near the top in a number of offensive categories. Theriot and Schumaker will likely prove a liability to those numbers in 2011. I don’t see these two doing much but treading water in 2011.

Pittsburgh Pirates
SS: Ronny Cedeno .256/.293/.382, 18 errors
2B: Neil Walker .296/.349/.462, 7 errors (in 105 games at second)
As promising as Neil Walker is at the plate and in the field, Cedeno really saps the value of the Pirates middle infield. He’s a liability on either side of the ball. Brain Bixler (AAA) may step into his shoes soon but at this stage of his career he wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over Cedeno. The shallow short here makes Pittsburgh’s middle pretty mild.

Closing the NL West

2011-01-06T16:21:00.000-08:00

1. Giants
Brain Wilson led the league in saves in 2010. His numbers are similar to Bell’s but Wilson’s postseason successes put him at the top of the list. I expect Wilson to save nearly every opportunity.

2. Padres
Over the past two seasons (42 & 47 saves), Heath Bell has cemented himself as one of baseball’s best closers. His strikeout rates are high (10.65 K/9 over the past two seasons) and home runs are almost non-existent. There’s every reason to assume that he’ll convert nearly every opportunity given him in 2011.

3. Dodgers
Broxton had a rough 2010. In August the Dodgers lost trust in him for the closer role and the responsibility fell to others. Kenley Jansen came in later in the season to throw 27 stellar innings. Broxton’s fastball has been declining rapidly and I’m not sure he’ll keep the role in 2011 even though it’s his to lose. Luckily for the Dodgers, Jansen could come in and provide some help.

4. Diamondbacks
JJ Putz was a top shelf closer in 2006 & 2007. In the three years since he’s pitched for the Mariners, Mets & White Sox, not as a closer for an entire season. His time with those three teams in relief was pretty good: 1.42 WHIP, 9.16 K/9. Last season his stats were the best of his last three years and that’s what leads me to believe he can still close 30+ games.

5. Rockies
Huston Street has filled the closer role for most of his professional career. He’s been up and down and has experienced some nagging injuries but his numbers speak for themselves. When he’s healthy he can close games but I have no reason to believe he can stay healthy and consistent for 2011.